Raffles Education Corp (Raffles Edu) (Update - Stop loss)

9-Feb-12:
Raffles Edu has been on a long term downtrend since Feb-09.

Currently still trending within the long term downtrend but formed a symmetrical triangle with resistance at 0.49 from Sep-11 to Feb-12. Broke out convincingly of 0.49 resistance on 8-Feb-12 with high volume.

On 9-Feb-12, opened lower at 0.505 and back-tested 0.49 resistance turned support. However, rose from 0.49 level (establishing it as a support level) to close back at opening price of 0.505, forming a doji.

The price pattern on 9-Feb-12 which stayed above the upper half of the white candle on 8-Feb-12 suggest that the uptrend is likely to continue.

Trading Plan
Long at 0.50
Target price: 0.62
Stop-loss:0.475


24-Feb-12:
Raffles Edu hit a high of 0.53 before falling back to erase most of the gains formed by the long white candle on 8-Feb-12. On 24-Feb-12, price opened at 0.475, breaking the short term uptrend line formed since the break-out. Stop-loss triggered at 0.475.

Cosco Corporation (Update - Closed trade)

5-Feb-12:

Cosco broke down from its uptrend in Feb-11 and subsequently fell from a high of 2.39 to a low of 0.85 in Nov-11, within a short span of less than a year.

The downtrend stalled and price began trading in a range from around 0.85 to 1.10 from Aug-11 to Jan-12. On 25-Jan-12, price broke out of the 1.10 resistance and gaped up at opening. Since then, it has been consolidating and managing to stay above the gap up opening price of 1.11. With the short term uptrend since Jan-12 intact, expect prices to continue its uptrend after one week of consolidation.

Trading plan
Long at 1.18
Target price: 1.38
Stop-loss: 1.12

24-Feb-12:

As per previous expectation, Cosco established a narrow uptrend (lasting about a month) after breaking out of 1.10 resistance. After opening at a high of 1.315 on 22-Feb-12, it fell and closed at a low of 1.28, completely erasing the gains of the day before. On 23-Feb-12, it gaped down at opening breaking the narrow uptrend line.

Closed the trade at 1.22 (slight profit) given that the short-term uptrend has been broken. Downside risk will be for price to fall back to 1.10 break-out line.

On 23-Feb-12, price gaped down again at opening, went much lower but subsequently went positive at closing, indicating strength at 1.19 support line. To monitor for possible long entry as long a price stays above 1.10.

CapitaMalls Asia (CapmallsAsia)

21-Feb-12:

As discussed in previous post, http://trendspoting.blogspot.com/2012/02/capitamalls-asia-capmallsasia.html, not only has 1.50 level held up, prices have remained above 1.56 support level for past 4 trading days.

Upside potential likely to continue but immediate resistance at 1.72. 

Trading Plan
Long at 1.605

Target price: 1.84

Stop-loss: 1.53

Sakari Resources

16-Feb-12:

Second round to long Sakari. Refer to previous post http://trendspoting.blogspot.com/2012/02/sakari-resources.html.

Sakari broke out of 2.45 resistance on 16-Feb-12 to close at 2.51 with strong volume. On 17-Feb-12, opened lower at 2.48 but subsequently climbed to close at a higher close of 2.53 from the previous day, showing strength on the upside, especially on a day when most stocks were down.

As mentioned in the previous post, the wave pattern suggests that the previous high of 3.00 will be challenged. Immediate resistance at 2.65.

Trading plan
Long at 2.54
Target price: 3.00
Stop-loss: 2.43

CapitaMalls Asia (CapmallsAsia) (Update - Profit taken)

9-Feb-12:

CapmallsAsia has been trading in a downtrend since its IPO in Dec-09. Began trading in a range of 1.14 to 1.38 from Aug-11 to Feb-12.

Broke out of the trading range as well as the long term downtrend on 8-Feb-12 with a convincing 9% rise.

Trading Plan
Long at 1.42

Target price: 1.60

Stop-loss: 1.38

16-Feb-12:

Profit taken at target price of 1.60.
Price reached 1.63 on high volume on 15-Feb-12 but subsequently opened lower and closed lower on 16-Feb-12. Possible consolidation to happen in the next few trading days.
If 1.50 level can hold, to consider long positions with next resistance levels at 1.70 and 1.85.
 

Yangzijiang

14-Feb-12:
Yangzijiang has been in correction ever since hitting a peak of 2.05 in Jan-11. Fell to a low of 0.77 in Oct-11 and subsequently rebounded from there.

Traded in a mini uptrend from Oct-11 to Feb-12 and broke out of 1.17 resistance on 6-Feb-12. Within three days price broke next level of resistance 1.25.

For the next four days, prices remain above 1.25 and back-tested support level on past two days only to close higher, indicating strength at the support level.

Trading Plan
Long at 1.265
Target price: 1.47
Stop-loss: 1.20

Singapore Airlines (SIA)

9-Feb-12:

SIA has formed a descending triangle from Aug-11 to Feb-12, a potentially bullish formation.

Gaped up on 26-Jan-12 but subsequently gaped down again on 3-Feb-12 forming a bearish island reversal formation. Back-tested the gap in the last 3 trading days and on 8-Feb-12, gaped up but subsequently, closed lower than the day before, indicating strength in the gap resistance.

Trading Plan
Short at 10.80
Target price: 9.60
Stop-loss: 11.10

Golden Agri-Resources

7-Feb-12:
Golden Agri has been trading in a uptrend trend since Mar-09.

Had been trading between the band of 0.62 to 0.74 since Mar-11, once breaking below 0.62 but subsequently recovering within a trading week.
Broke out of 0.74 resistance on 6-Feb-11.

Trading Plan
Long at 0.76

Target price:0.85

Stop-loss: 0.73

Ezra Holdings (Updated - Profit taken)

25-Jan-11:
Ezra has fallen from a high of 2.3 to the current price of 1.04.
Has been forming higher lows for last two weeks, forming a triangle formation. 
Today, price broke out of 1.01 resistance line formed by two previous peak with moderate volume.

Trading Plan

Long at 1.01 to 1.04

Target price:1.2

Stop-loss: Exit trade if price fall below 0.98

7-Feb-12:

Profit taken at 1.17 as resistance level formed by previous gap appears to be holding.

Sakari Resources (Updated - Profit taken)

1-Feb-12:

Not a proponent of Elliot Wave theory but based on the long term trend lines, there seem to be a distinct wave pattern (even though it does not conform to Elliot Wave theory).

Sakari has been in an uptrend since Dec'11 and on 17-Jan-11, broke out of the descending triangle supported by the bottoms formed in Oct'11 and Dec'11.

Today, Sakari back-tested the uptrend support trend-line and but rose towards closing to erase most of the losses.

Trading plan

Long at 2.32.
Target price: 2.66
Stop-loss: 2.20

1-Feb-12:

Took profit early at 2.42 as resistance level of 2.46 appears to be holding. Possibility of trending within the band and back-testing the support at 1.80 levels.

Indofood Agri Resources (IndoAgri)

4-Feb-11:

IndoAgri broke down from its uptrend (formed since Mar-09) in Jan-11. Price subsequently fell from a high of 2.90 to 1.20 levels. Halted the downtrend in Oct-11 and began forming a symmetrical triangle with higher lows and a resistance level at 1.50.

On Friday, price broke out of 1.50 resistance level with strong volume, continuing its short term uptrend since beginning Jan-12.

Trading plan
Long at 1.54
Target price: 1.74
Stop-loss: 1.45

Straits Times Index (STI) (Updated)

22-Jan-12:
Since breaking down of the long term uptrend established since July 2009, STI have been forming a ascending triangle between the levels of 2,500 and 2,900.

















From 30th December 2010, STI have embarked on a relatively uninterrupted run up and is currently close to the resistance level of 2,900. At this point, I'm still long the market but will generally not be looking into entering new long positions.

Expecting a pullback at 2,900 to around 2,700 levels before the market attempts another rally. This view will hold unless STI manages to break out of 2,900.

29-Jan-12:
STI gapped up and broke out of 2,900 level on 26-Jan-12 (Thur) but was weak and closed with a black candle at 2,894, just below the 2,900 resistance line.

Anxious bears will have shorted at this point taking into account the possible evening star confirmation if the fall in prices was to continue the next day. However, STI sprang a surprise and instead, even though the index opened lower than the closing on 27-Jan-12 (Fri), it formed a bullish engulfing candle and closed near the high of the day before.
 

Given the bullish engulfing candle on 27-Jan-12 (Fri), a white candle with a higher close than 2,916 will confirm the uptrend is still intact. However, given the weak US market on Friday and the Greek debt issue yet being unresolved, it appears unlikely that the market can go higher on Monday.

The next resistance level of 3,000 will be the support turned possible resistance line formed by the two bottoms in Aug-10 and Mar-11.

Trading Plan

At this level, it is prudent not to add new long positions given that upside potential appears to be limited. However, I am still relatively bullish on penny stocks which have less correlation with the STI.

Short positions should also be entered only upon confirmation. 

The longer term plan will be to long on pull-backs.

Gallant Venture

26-Jan-11:

Gallant has been trading within a large uptrend band since 2009.

In the past 3 months, it has been trading slightly above the support line at 0.23. Broke-out of the descending triangle formed since Aug-11 in the last trading day. Currently testing longer term downtrend resistance line established since Apr-11.

Trading Plan

Long at 0.28

Target price: 0.33

Stop-loss: 0.26

Midas Holdings

26-Jan-11:
Similar set-up to Ezra. Having fallen from the highs in 2010, the shares were trading in the range of 0.315 to 0.375. Broke out of 0.375 resistance line yesterday coupled with decent volume over the last few trading days.

Trading Plan

Long at 0.38

Target price: 0.44

Stop-loss: 0.36

Olam International (Updated - trade closed)

22-Jan-12:
Olam has been on a downtrend since January 2011. Currently, testing the upper trend-line supported by 3 prior peaks. Price is however, supported by three previous bottoms at around 2.10.

In the past two trading days, price have seen weakness upon hitting 2.52 and in the last trading day, the price gaped up in opening trade and subsequently closed lower than the prior days close, indicating further weakness in the price.

Trading Plan

Short between 2.48 to 2.52.

Target price: 2.12

Stop-loss: Exit trade if price rises above 2.52 with good volume.

25-Jan-12:

Review of trade
Cut loss at 2.54 during opening trade in view of the high volume exhibited. Bullish engulfing candle and break-out from the downtrend has turned view into bullish bias. Closed at 2.63, a whopping 6.5% rise from previous close.

Likely to test resistance at 2.80 level next.

Rules of Engagement

Have refined my trading over the past year and set up some ground rules for myself.

#1: No more than 6 open positions
#2: Stop loss of 5%
#3: Trades are typically entered using market orders at first or last hour of trading
#4: Exit trades base on 2 bar reversal patterns

I N V E S T

Everyone kinda knows they should invest but less seem to know what they should invest in.

 Let's make this simple and list down some of the options:

Overview

1) Put what you have in your bank
2) Buy life insurance/ILPs/funds
3) Buy property
4) Buy ETFs
5) Buy REITS/dividend stocks


1) When your returns are lower than the rate of inflation, I don't think that qualifies as a viable investment.

2) Valid choice if you enjoy letting other people dictate how much you earn with low visibility over why you are earning/losing. Do note that cost such as management fees and performance fees are deducted away from your investments and that all projections are dependent upon the market holding up according to their assumptions. 
The reason why you can get back money from your life insurance when you die/outlive the insurance period is because 1) you have paid for it via your premiums, 2) they have invested the premiums and hopefully earned some decent returns from it.

3) Property investment is what gave most of Singaporean millionaires their millions. However, property markets like all markets do and will crash (though it may be hard to believe in Singapore with the ever rising prices). Furthermore, the high cost of property just means that this option is simply beyond the reach of most of us. But if you have the cash, go for it (but do your due diligence).

4) Exchange-traded-funds or ETFs in short. Basically, funds that mimic the components of a particular exchange (i..e. STI ETF mimics the Straits Times Index). When the stock market (and exchange index) rises, the ETF rises in value and vice versa. Buying an ETF is just like buying an ordinary share using a brokerage account and management fees are kept at a minimal.

5) Real Estate Investment Trust or REITs in short. Investment vehicles that generally earn rental income and are governed by exchange rules to distribute 90% of their income to their shareholders. There are also companies that distribute majority of their income as dividends but these are usually not governed by any laws.
 Assuming the company remains profitable, you are guaranteed a fixed income (dividends) while possibly enjoying appreciation in the price of the stock. Of course when the market falls, it's possible the share value will fall as well.

My suggestion
4 for starters, 5 if you prefer to stock pick, 3 if you can afford it


My analysis is probably oversimplified and relies on many assumptions but then again, what's the difference with that presented by most financial advisors?

I am no expert on investing but what I do know is if you can't or won't take ownership over your own wealth, then you don't really deserve that wealth in the first place.